Dracil’s BlogJournal

June 10, 2008

Now that Clinton’s gone…

Filed under: News, Politics — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — dracil @ 9:46 pm

Note the huge change on Sunday’s polling, which is the day after Clinton announced that she suspended her campaign.  I think this is a good thing, and it shows that despite all the emotions and irrationality during the primaries, people still realize how dangerous it would be for McCain to win.

May 26, 2008

Clinton’s New Math

For people who are wondering how Clinton could possibly be ahead on the popular vote, here’s how it works (summed up by a guy on Penny Arcade):

The explanation given to me is that you:
A) Include Florida and Michigan.
B) Michigan’s “uncommitted” stay that way. Obama gets nothing.
C) Exclude caucuses in Iowa, Maine, Washington and Nevada.

So, let’s not count only 48 states. Let’s count all 46.

Smooth, real smooth.  I think the saddest thing is that some people actually buy into this crap.

May 23, 2008

Clinton: Open mouth, insert foot

Clinton’s Assassination remark

“My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. You know I just, I don’t understand it,” she said, dismissing the idea of abandoning the race.

Smooth, real smooth. Yeah, that was actually probably not intentional. But the way it was said is just absolutely horrible. Like a Freudian slip.

Meanwhile, delegates are growing more and more dissatisfied with Clinton and hence we have “The Cardoza 40”. The best scenario of course is to get Obama close enough that he wins naturally via the primaries on June 3. To do otherwise would allow people to say that the superdelegates decided the nominee (which is stupid, given that Obama already has the majority of pledged delegates, and it is the superdelegates who are behind on voting. But there are stupid people in the world).

May 21, 2008

Obama now has majority of pledged delegates

As expected, Clinton’s won Kentucky, which really doesn’t matter considering how red it is. Meanwhile, Obama won Oregon, but it doesn’t really matter either ’cause everyone knew Obama would win that.

Clinton of course continues to “fight” till the end (some say she’s only pretending to fight to recover her campaign debt). The thing is, we actually want Clinton to continue to the end now. The reason? There’s a good chance that Obama will clinch the nomination with the last three contests (which he’s pretty much projected to win, except for maybe a tie in Puerto Rico), which looks a lot better than if Clinton had dropped out after her huge win in West Virginia or even after last night. But With 86 pledged delegates remaining, and about 70 needed by Obama, he’s still going to need some help by superdelegates before then. But Obama has a pledged delegate majority now. Which makes it more likely for even more superdelegates to flock to him.

Indeed, he’s picked up superdelegates from Guam, Washington, and Connecticut within the past 24 hours.

May 14, 2008

Obama, Endorsements, Abortion, and Elections

People like to point and say, oh look, Clinton gets all those working-class white voters that Obama has no chance of getting. That’s only when comparing Clinton vs. Obama. The problem is, when compared to McCain, she actually doesn’t fare that much better.

Among these voters, McCain beats Obama 46%-39%.

And McCain beats Hillary 48%-41%.

So basically, Clinton’s demographics may really be McCain’s demographics, which would already be factored into the general Obama or Clinton vs. McCain polls that are conducted regularly.

The Edwards endorsement tonight may also swing the numbers for this demographic a little towards Obama as well.

Obama also received the NARAL endorsement earlier today which will help him with Democrats but hurt him with Republicans and conservatives (who’re less likely to vote for him anyway). Also, LOL at EMILY’s List whining about it. If you truly think the equally pro-choice Obama isn’t pro-choice enough, then grow a pair and take your sexist all-women list and go vote for the anti-abortion McCain instead. Otherwise, shut up and keep your misandry to yourself.

Anyway, this year also isn’t like the others. Specifically, the increased Black, Youth, and Latino turnout (also check out the Q&A on it) will probably have a pretty big impact on the elections. Republicans can’t even win in Republican strongholds anymore.

Part of the reason McCain is even doing so well is that Clinton/Obama supporters basically hate each other right now. Once Clinton’s eliminated, there’ll be five or six months for them to remember what exactly McCain represents and realize that no matter how much they hate the rival Democratic candidate, McCain is even worse (heck, all I needed to do was go in the Politics forum of a major Christian forum to realize that)

And just to lighten things up, the current candidates as board gamers.

May 13, 2008

West Virginia, Education, Clinton, and Creationists

Here’s an interesting tidbit.

Census Bureau and other government data show nearly 18 percent of West Virginians live below the poverty line and roughly 74 percent of the state’s population makes less than $50,000 a year. Put another way, West Virginia ranked 50th among the states in household income and 48th in the percentage of adults with a high school diploma.

In addition to that, West Virginia ranks last for people with college degrees at 15.9%, a full 3.1% below the next lowest (Arkansas).

Also, someone on the Penny Arcade forums looked up some county statistics.

Starr County, Texas- highest % with no high school diploma- voted for Clinton 83-16.
Douglas County, Colorado- lowest %, same stat- voted Obama 63-37

I don’t think I can really say anything else without basically insulting the general Clinton demographic. :P

Though I will add that Clinton’s demographic also tends to be Creationists.

May 12, 2008

Hillary’s got nothing left

Well, since the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, Obama has now taken away Clinton’s superdelegate lead as well, and several of those were defections too.  It doesn’t matter if it’s vote counts, pledged delegates, superdelegate support, money raised and available, or states won.  Clinton has nothing concrete over Obama now, and even the superdelegates are saying so with their votes, which means a superdelegate coup is a lot less likely if it comes to that.

Also, the additional $6.4 million loan Clinton gave to her own campaign means she’s probably gonna be cash-strapped for the remaining contests too.  Really, who wants to donate to someone that’s probably going to lose anyway?  It’s basically throwing money away.

Yes yes, Clinton will win West Virginia tomorrow, but nobody expected Obama to win that anyway, so it’s gonna be a nonevent.

May 6, 2008

Victory for Obama!

Glad to see Obama basically won tonight.  Obama was expected to lose Indiana, he only lost by 2%.  He was expected to win NC.  He won by 14%.  As an estimate of expectations, there was a poll on the Penny Arcade forums asking if Obama would do better or worse than -6% in Indiana and +7% in Indiana.  He beat both expectations.

Meanwhile, this is translating to +16 delegates in North Carolina and -4 delegates in Indiana for Obama.  That’s already wiped out all the delegates Clinton got in Pennsylvania, and there’s still 15 delegates in North Carolina and 2 delegates in Indiana that haven’t been allocated (I’m using CNN’s numbers for all this)

So yes, it’s been a good night for Obama.

April 27, 2008

Obama confuses Taiwan with Thailand

台灣泰國不分 歐巴馬演講出糗

Obama’s Pennsylvania primary speech

Bad Obama bad.  No cookie for you.

“We’re here because of the more than one hundred workers in Logansport, Indiana who just found out that their company has decided to move its entire factory to Taiwan.”

Except reporters from HK’s Ming Pao newspapers discovered that while they did indeed relocate their factory, it was to Thailand, not Taiwan.

April 22, 2008

Happy Earth Day and Pennsylvania Primaries

Updated 10:58pm with new numbers

Well that was an unexpected surprise.  Didn’t realize today was Earth Day until I saw people singing Happy Birthday to Earth at the Farmer’s Market today.  There was also a line where they were passing out reusable shopping bags as long as you were a Bay Area resident and promised to use reusable bags when shopping (I already do when I have my backpack).  That, and they had people around the recycling/compost/garbage bins to make sure people threw their stuff in the right bins.

Anyway, it’s good to see that with 99% precincts reporting, Clinton’s only ahead 54.3-45.7 in votes, and only only a 10 delegate lead.  Given the very pro-Clinton demographics there, narrowing the vote to a single digit spread and 10 delegates is very impressive for Obama.  Especially since not that long ago, people were expecting Clinton to win by 20% in votes.  Oh how the once mighty have fallen.  Of course, it just writhes and refuses to die, which is just pathetic.  But anyway.

Aside from Pennsylvania, Obama has also been doing really well on the polls on Gallup.  Bittergate had essentially 0 effect on his standings in the polls.  Even the “debate” last week only caused a minor hiccup for Obama and he bounced all the way back to a 10% lead in just a few days.  It’s a true testament to Obama’s momentum.

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