Dracil’s BlogJournal

May 12, 2008

Hillary’s got nothing left

Well, since the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, Obama has now taken away Clinton’s superdelegate lead as well, and several of those were defections too.  It doesn’t matter if it’s vote counts, pledged delegates, superdelegate support, money raised and available, or states won.  Clinton has nothing concrete over Obama now, and even the superdelegates are saying so with their votes, which means a superdelegate coup is a lot less likely if it comes to that.

Also, the additional $6.4 million loan Clinton gave to her own campaign means she’s probably gonna be cash-strapped for the remaining contests too.  Really, who wants to donate to someone that’s probably going to lose anyway?  It’s basically throwing money away.

Yes yes, Clinton will win West Virginia tomorrow, but nobody expected Obama to win that anyway, so it’s gonna be a nonevent.


May 6, 2008

Victory for Obama!

Glad to see Obama basically won tonight.  Obama was expected to lose Indiana, he only lost by 2%.  He was expected to win NC.  He won by 14%.  As an estimate of expectations, there was a poll on the Penny Arcade forums asking if Obama would do better or worse than -6% in Indiana and +7% in Indiana.  He beat both expectations.

Meanwhile, this is translating to +16 delegates in North Carolina and -4 delegates in Indiana for Obama.  That’s already wiped out all the delegates Clinton got in Pennsylvania, and there’s still 15 delegates in North Carolina and 2 delegates in Indiana that haven’t been allocated (I’m using CNN’s numbers for all this)

So yes, it’s been a good night for Obama.

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