Dracil’s BlogJournal

May 26, 2008

Clinton’s New Math

For people who are wondering how Clinton could possibly be ahead on the popular vote, here’s how it works (summed up by a guy on Penny Arcade):

The explanation given to me is that you:
A) Include Florida and Michigan.
B) Michigan’s “uncommitted” stay that way. Obama gets nothing.
C) Exclude caucuses in Iowa, Maine, Washington and Nevada.

So, let’s not count only 48 states. Let’s count all 46.

Smooth, real smooth.  I think the saddest thing is that some people actually buy into this crap.

May 14, 2008

Obama, Endorsements, Abortion, and Elections

People like to point and say, oh look, Clinton gets all those working-class white voters that Obama has no chance of getting. That’s only when comparing Clinton vs. Obama. The problem is, when compared to McCain, she actually doesn’t fare that much better.

Among these voters, McCain beats Obama 46%-39%.

And McCain beats Hillary 48%-41%.

So basically, Clinton’s demographics may really be McCain’s demographics, which would already be factored into the general Obama or Clinton vs. McCain polls that are conducted regularly.

The Edwards endorsement tonight may also swing the numbers for this demographic a little towards Obama as well.

Obama also received the NARAL endorsement earlier today which will help him with Democrats but hurt him with Republicans and conservatives (who’re less likely to vote for him anyway). Also, LOL at EMILY’s List whining about it. If you truly think the equally pro-choice Obama isn’t pro-choice enough, then grow a pair and take your sexist all-women list and go vote for the anti-abortion McCain instead. Otherwise, shut up and keep your misandry to yourself.

Anyway, this year also isn’t like the others. Specifically, the increased Black, Youth, and Latino turnout (also check out the Q&A on it) will probably have a pretty big impact on the elections. Republicans can’t even win in Republican strongholds anymore.

Part of the reason McCain is even doing so well is that Clinton/Obama supporters basically hate each other right now. Once Clinton’s eliminated, there’ll be five or six months for them to remember what exactly McCain represents and realize that no matter how much they hate the rival Democratic candidate, McCain is even worse (heck, all I needed to do was go in the Politics forum of a major Christian forum to realize that)

And just to lighten things up, the current candidates as board gamers.

May 6, 2008

Victory for Obama!

Glad to see Obama basically won tonight.  Obama was expected to lose Indiana, he only lost by 2%.  He was expected to win NC.  He won by 14%.  As an estimate of expectations, there was a poll on the Penny Arcade forums asking if Obama would do better or worse than -6% in Indiana and +7% in Indiana.  He beat both expectations.

Meanwhile, this is translating to +16 delegates in North Carolina and -4 delegates in Indiana for Obama.  That’s already wiped out all the delegates Clinton got in Pennsylvania, and there’s still 15 delegates in North Carolina and 2 delegates in Indiana that haven’t been allocated (I’m using CNN’s numbers for all this)

So yes, it’s been a good night for Obama.

April 27, 2008

Obama confuses Taiwan with Thailand

台灣泰國不分 歐巴馬演講出糗

Obama’s Pennsylvania primary speech

Bad Obama bad.  No cookie for you.

“We’re here because of the more than one hundred workers in Logansport, Indiana who just found out that their company has decided to move its entire factory to Taiwan.”

Except reporters from HK’s Ming Pao newspapers discovered that while they did indeed relocate their factory, it was to Thailand, not Taiwan.

April 22, 2008

Happy Earth Day and Pennsylvania Primaries

Updated 10:58pm with new numbers

Well that was an unexpected surprise.  Didn’t realize today was Earth Day until I saw people singing Happy Birthday to Earth at the Farmer’s Market today.  There was also a line where they were passing out reusable shopping bags as long as you were a Bay Area resident and promised to use reusable bags when shopping (I already do when I have my backpack).  That, and they had people around the recycling/compost/garbage bins to make sure people threw their stuff in the right bins.

Anyway, it’s good to see that with 99% precincts reporting, Clinton’s only ahead 54.3-45.7 in votes, and only only a 10 delegate lead.  Given the very pro-Clinton demographics there, narrowing the vote to a single digit spread and 10 delegates is very impressive for Obama.  Especially since not that long ago, people were expecting Clinton to win by 20% in votes.  Oh how the once mighty have fallen.  Of course, it just writhes and refuses to die, which is just pathetic.  But anyway.

Aside from Pennsylvania, Obama has also been doing really well on the polls on Gallup.  Bittergate had essentially 0 effect on his standings in the polls.  Even the “debate” last week only caused a minor hiccup for Obama and he bounced all the way back to a 10% lead in just a few days.  It’s a true testament to Obama’s momentum.

April 21, 2008

Clinton implies Bush deserved win in 2000


Woah woah, what did you just say? That the Democratic system is crazy? He’s actually pining for the Republican system because it’s more like the electoral college? You must be getting senile. Did you forget the electoral college is what let Bush triumph over Al Gore despite Al Gore having the popular vote, which interestingly enough, Obama has as well right now?

What is going on with the Clintons? First they said McCain was better than Obama. And now they’re saying the Republican system is better too. And that’s on top of Clinton staying in the race knowing full well that it is impossible for her to get a delegate lead, so the only way she’ll win is from a superdelegate coup, which will tear the Democrats apart for years. Why don’t you just go on over to the other side? Because you sure as hell don’t belong on this side. Sheesh.

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