Dracil’s BlogJournal

May 23, 2008

Clinton: Open mouth, insert foot

Clinton’s Assassination remark

“My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. You know I just, I don’t understand it,” she said, dismissing the idea of abandoning the race.

Smooth, real smooth. Yeah, that was actually probably not intentional. But the way it was said is just absolutely horrible. Like a Freudian slip.

Meanwhile, delegates are growing more and more dissatisfied with Clinton and hence we have “The Cardoza 40”. The best scenario of course is to get Obama close enough that he wins naturally via the primaries on June 3. To do otherwise would allow people to say that the superdelegates decided the nominee (which is stupid, given that Obama already has the majority of pledged delegates, and it is the superdelegates who are behind on voting. But there are stupid people in the world).

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May 21, 2008

Obama now has majority of pledged delegates

As expected, Clinton’s won Kentucky, which really doesn’t matter considering how red it is. Meanwhile, Obama won Oregon, but it doesn’t really matter either ’cause everyone knew Obama would win that.

Clinton of course continues to “fight” till the end (some say she’s only pretending to fight to recover her campaign debt). The thing is, we actually want Clinton to continue to the end now. The reason? There’s a good chance that Obama will clinch the nomination with the last three contests (which he’s pretty much projected to win, except for maybe a tie in Puerto Rico), which looks a lot better than if Clinton had dropped out after her huge win in West Virginia or even after last night. But With 86 pledged delegates remaining, and about 70 needed by Obama, he’s still going to need some help by superdelegates before then. But Obama has a pledged delegate majority now. Which makes it more likely for even more superdelegates to flock to him.

Indeed, he’s picked up superdelegates from Guam, Washington, and Connecticut within the past 24 hours.

May 6, 2008

Victory for Obama!

Glad to see Obama basically won tonight.  Obama was expected to lose Indiana, he only lost by 2%.  He was expected to win NC.  He won by 14%.  As an estimate of expectations, there was a poll on the Penny Arcade forums asking if Obama would do better or worse than -6% in Indiana and +7% in Indiana.  He beat both expectations.

Meanwhile, this is translating to +16 delegates in North Carolina and -4 delegates in Indiana for Obama.  That’s already wiped out all the delegates Clinton got in Pennsylvania, and there’s still 15 delegates in North Carolina and 2 delegates in Indiana that haven’t been allocated (I’m using CNN’s numbers for all this)

So yes, it’s been a good night for Obama.

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